AI Model Makes Stunning Prediction of 2028 Presidential Winner
An artificial intelligence model has generated a speculative forecast about the 2028 U.S. presidential election, despite official candidates not yet being known, drawing attention on social media and YouTube.
The forecast was produced using Grok, an AI chatbot developed by the company associated with Elon Musk, after a YouTube channel asked the system to simulate a likely outcome based on a set of hypothetical candidates. The simulation included state-by-state projections, an electoral map, and projected vote totals for chosen figures from both major parties.
As the host explains, “In this video, I asked Grok AI to predict the 2028 presidential election and give us a map forecast.”
In the end, Vance was predicted to take 312 electoral votes to Harris’ 212, according to the simulation; 270 are needed to win the presidency.
On the Democratic side, Kamala Harris currently holds the lead in early primary polling with 32 percent of the support, putting her ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom, who has 23.8 percent.
Former Biden Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is in third place, just shy of 10 percent, while Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro follow close behind.
The host notes that Harris’s resurgence may surprise some, given that “many people did write Kamala Harris off following her 2024 election defeat.”
Recent polling indicates that she is regaining her advantage. Additionally, the betting markets reflect this positive trend, now suggesting there’s a 56 percent chance she will seek the Democratic nomination in 2028, a significant rise from just 11.2 percent a few months back.
“Today, it is more likely than not that she is going to run again,” the video states.
On the Republican side, Vice President JD Vance leads early polling with 49.2 percent support, significantly ahead of Donald Trump Jr., who is trailing by 29 points. Senator Marco Rubio has 12.5 percent, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis stands at 9.2 percent.
According to the simulation, Vance is the clear favorite for the GOP nomination, with a 46 percent chance of becoming the party’s standard-bearer. Rubio follows with an 18 percent chance.
The host notes: “If nothing big changes, he will very likely become the party’s nominee in the next presidential race.”
Grok’s simulation begins by defining “solid” states as those with a margin of 15 points or more. Vance’s solid column includes the following states: Utah, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, most of Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Indiana, South Carolina, and Ohio.
The inclusion of Ohio marks a significant shift; once a key battleground, the state has trended sharply to the right, Newsner noted.
“It is not difficult to see that he will carry the Buckeye State by a solid 15-point margin,” particularly following Donald Trump’s double-digit win there in 2024, the host said in the video.
Harris’s group of solid states mirrors much of her 2024 coalition, showing some modest gains. She is projected to win the states of Washington, California, Hawaii, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, the District of Columbia, and Maine’s first congressional district by at least 15 points. Notably, the model predicts that Connecticut and Delaware will return to solid Democratic margins after experiencing narrower results in 2020.
After accounting for solid states, Vance leads with 139 electoral votes to 108. Additionally, the “likely” category, which contains margins between 5 and 15 points, further enhances his advantage.
He is projected to win in Iowa, North Carolina, Florida, Texas, Arizona, Alaska, and Maine’s second district.
Florida and Texas are viewed as firmly Republican due to recent gains by the party, while Arizona, which was narrowly won by Trump in 2024, is expected to remain in Republican hands. With these solidly Republican and likely states counted, Vance would secure 246 electoral votes, leaving him just 24 votes short of the 270 needed to win.
In the end, Vance is expected to take 312 electoral votes to Harris’ 212, according to the simulation; 270 are needed to win the presidency.
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Mamdani Unveils $127 Billion Budget, Threatens 9.5% Property Tax Hike
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani has unveiled a record $127 billion preliminary budget for fiscal year 2027 and issued a blunt ultimatum to Kathy Hochul: approve a tax hike on millionaires or face a nearly 10% property tax increase.
The proposal represents an $11 billion increase over the current $115.9 billion fiscal year 2026 budget, a 9.6% jump that would make it the largest spending plan in city history. Despite warning of a projected $5.4 billion budget gap, the mayor’s proposal contains few significant spending cuts.
Instead, Mamdani is pressing Albany to approve a 2% income tax increase on individuals earning more than $1 million annually. That change requires state authorization. If Hochul and the Legislature refuse, Mamdani said he would be “forced” to pursue what he described as a “second, more harmful path” — a 9.5% property tax increase across the board.
“I do not want to raise property taxes,” Mamdani said while presenting the budget. “When faced with this crisis, the question is who should pay these taxes? I believe that it should be the wealthiest New Yorkers, the most profitable corporations.”
The proposed property tax hike would affect roughly 3 million residential units and 100,000 commercial properties. City officials estimate it would generate approximately $3.7 billion, still short of fully closing the budget gap.
The spending plan allocates $38 billion to the Department of Education, a $3 billion increase, and $6.38 billion to the NYPD, up $100 million.
It also includes $38 million for the Law Department to hire 200 new attorneys and 100 support staff.
Mamdani additionally proposed drawing more than $3.25 billion from city reserves and tapping other savings accounts to help balance the budget.
Under the property tax proposal, residential homes and small buildings with three or fewer units could see increases approaching 22%, larger apartment buildings could face hikes exceeding 13%, and commercial properties could see increases near 12%.
For example, the owner of a single-family Park Slope home with a market value of about $3.2 million currently paying roughly $8,700 in annual property taxes could see that bill rise to around $9,500.
An Upper West Side condominium assessed at $120,000 could see its annual tax bill increase from $14,926 to $16,345.
Property taxes have not been raised citywide since shortly after the September 11, 2001 attacks.
Hochul quickly signaled opposition to the idea. “I’m not supportive of a property tax increase. I don’t know that that’s necessary,” she told reporters during an unrelated event.
Without state approval for the income tax increase, property taxes are the only major revenue source the mayor can adjust with City Council approval. That reality has intensified the standoff between City Hall and Albany as both budgets move through their respective processes.
City Comptroller Mark Levine warned that the proposed property tax increase would have “dire consequences,” calling the city’s property tax structure “profoundly unfair and inconsistent” and describing an across-the-board increase as regressive.
Andrew Rein, executive director of the Citizens Budget Commission, said the mayor should focus on efficiency before seeking new revenue, stating that every dollar of the $127 billion budget should be used effectively before asking taxpayers to contribute more.
Even within Democratic circles, frustration is reportedly mounting. Sources familiar with council dynamics suggested that left-wing members are skeptical of the strategy, noting that Hochul has repeatedly expressed resistance to raising income taxes ahead of her reelection campaign.
Albany’s budget is due April 1, though delays are common. New York City’s finalized budget must be approved by June 5 and takes effect July 1. Political observers say Mamdani’s approach amounts to high-stakes leverage, but broad property tax increases have historically been unpopular with voters.
With the richest city budget in history on the table and a looming fiscal gap, Mamdani is effectively wagering that Albany will blink before City Hall does.
